Williams Companies (WMB) reports earnings on August 4th, with consensus expecting revenue of $2.85B, adj EPS of $0.52, and EBITDA of $1.75B. The street is focused on Transco expansion timing and datacenter gas demand commentary, but our long thesis suggests the street underestimates power-gen gas demand growth. We believe the SSE project's addition of 1.6 Bcf/d will positively impact results.
Our long position is based on the view that consensus underestimates power-gen gas demand growth, which we believe will be supported by the SSE project's incremental capacity.
| Metric | Consensus | Prior Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.85B | N/A |
| Adj EPS | $0.52 | N/A |
| EBITDA | $1.75B | $7.0-7.15B (FY) |
| Scenario | Stock Reaction | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | Beat on EBITDA and positive commentary on power-gen gas demand | Positive | Confirmation of our thesis on underestimated power-gen gas demand growth |
| Base | In-line with consensus | Neutral | Lack of surprise on Transco expansion and datacenter demand |
| Bear | Miss on EBITDA and negative commentary on gas demand | Negative | Concerns over gas demand growth and Transco expansion timing |