Meridian Wealth Partners · Idea Report

WMB — Williams Companies

BUY · PT $95 · 2026-07-03
Confidential — Prepared for Client
01 · Bottom Line

We believe Williams Companies is poised for significant growth driven by increasing natural gas demand from AI datacenters, with the Southeast Supply Enhancement project set to add substantial volumes. Our BUY rating reflects this underappreciated potential, contrary to the consensus view of the company as a slow grower.

Rating
BUY
Target Price
$95
Last Price
$77.52
Sector
Midstream Energy
Horizon
18 months
Upside
23%
02 · Thesis

Why WMB

The Williams Companies' natural gas transportation business is on the cusp of a significant inflection point, driven by growing demand from AI datacenters. The Transco expansion projects, fully contracted through 2028, position the company to capitalize on this trend. Notably, the Southeast Supply Enhancement project alone is expected to add approximately 1.6 Bcf/d, underscoring the potential for meaningful volume growth.

The consensus view underestimates the impact of power-gen gas demand growth from datacenter buildout in the Virginia/Georgia corridor. As datacenters continue to expand, they will require increasing amounts of natural gas for power generation, driving up demand for Williams Companies' services. With a dividend well covered at 1.9x, the company's financial foundation is solid.

The fully contracted nature of the Transco expansion projects through 2028 provides visibility into future cash flows, supporting our positive outlook. While risks such as FERC permitting delays and gas price collapse exist, we believe the potential for growth driven by AI datacenter demand makes Williams Companies an attractive investment opportunity.

Bull Case
  • Increasing natural gas demand from AI datacenters
  • Fully contracted Transco expansion projects through 2028
  • Substantial volume addition from the Southeast Supply Enhancement project
Bear Case
  • Risk of FERC permitting delays
  • Potential for gas price collapse below $2
03 · Variant View

What Consensus Gets Wrong

The consensus models Williams Companies as a boring 5% grower, failing to account for the significant potential of increasing natural gas demand from AI datacenters and the substantial volume addition from projects like the Southeast Supply Enhancement. This underestimation of growth prospects presents an opportunity for investors to capitalize on the company's underappreciated potential.

04 · Catalyst Path

What Moves It

WindowEventWhy It Matters
Q3 2026Southeast Supply Enhancement project updateProgress on this project will be a key indicator of the company's ability to execute on its growth strategy and capitalize on increasing demand from AI datacenters.
Q4 2026Transco expansion project milestonesAchieving these milestones will demonstrate the company's ability to deliver on its fully contracted projects and support future cash flows.
Q1 2027Datacenter buildout updates in Virginia/Georgia corridorIncreased activity in this corridor will drive demand for natural gas, benefiting Williams Companies' transportation business.
05 · Risks

What Breaks the Thesis